High-school seniors have a lot on their minds these days-applying to college, getting accepted, finding the funds to pay for it, then worrying about whether they can get a job once they graduate. One thing they hadn't counted on, however, was being drafted into the military when they turn 18.

There hasn't been a draft in the United States since 1973, but indications are strong that next year that may change. And for the first time, young women as well as men can expect to be called.

Why a return to the draft? Because our troops (stationed in two-thirds of the world's countries) are spread so thinly, and because high casualty rates in Iraq and Afghanistan have dramatically reduced recruitment and reenlistment levels. A poll taken last year by Stars and Stripes, a Pentagon-funded newspaper for service personnel, found that 49 percent of respondents were not planning to reenlist.

According to retired U.S. Army Colonel David Hackworth, a military analyst and one of the most decorated officers in the army, the U.S. military is now so shorthanded that a whop- ping 40 percent of the 135,000 troops being rotated into Iraq are National Guard members and reservists. Adds Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY), "We haven't called up this level of reservists since the Korean War."

What's more, if House and Bills HR163 and S89 pass, the hole of college, used by many to avoid serving in Vietnam, will be closed next time around. All men and women ages 18 to 26 would be eligible for induction once they have completed high school. Further, the Smart Border Declaration, signed by Canadian and U.S. officials in December 2001, should keep would-be draft dodgers in this country.

Congressman Rangel, author of the House bill, which is now before the Armed Services Committee (Ernest Hollings [D-SCJ authored the Senate version), explains that the Administration's commitment to a prolonged presence in the Middle East, the prospect of additional military interventions, and the fact that "half of Guards and reservists say they have no intention to stay in" are strong indicators that "ultimately we will run out of bodies."

"We shouldn't need a draft," says Rangel, "but now that we've been involved in a war, the patriotic thing is shared sacrifice. Currently, the rich get a tax cut, and the poor get a chance to make the ultimate sacrifice."

Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE), addressing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in April, concurred. "Why shouldn't we ask all our citizens to bear some responsibility and pay some price?" he said.

Feeling a Draft?

The Administration denies that a draft is in the works. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has stated: "We're not going to reemployment a draft. There is no need for it . The disadvantages of using compulsion to bring into the armed forces the men and women needed are notable."

But, says Ron Paul, M.D., an eight-term Republican congressman from Texas and a former Air Force surgeon, "You don't listen to what they say, you watch what they do. The Administration says no, but what we've gotten from the Pentagon and elsewhere is yes."

One sign of that, says Rick Jahnkow, program coordinator of the nonprofit Project on Youth and Non-Military Opportunities, was that last fall "[Presidential adviser] Karl Rove polled Republican members of Congress on how Illey felt about the draft. They said they'd support the President"

"This is not surprising," comments Dr. Paul, who sits on the International Relations Committee and was one of only six Republican congressmen who voted against the war in Iraq. "Our foreign policy involves us in so much around the world. To continue to do this, we need more troops." He further points out that we already have a "de facto draft. You only have to look at how the Administration has refused to allow troops to end their tours of duty when their contracts are up," he says.

The Administration is in a box, observes Ned Lebow, Ph.D., presidential professor of government at Dartmouth College and a former professor of military strategy at the National War and Naval Colleges. "The Pentagon has tried to resolve its serious manpower shortages in Iraq by greatly extending tours of duty. Reservists and Guards can be kept in for as long as the government says they need them, possibly for years, and this has become increasingly un- acceptable in the political sense at home."

Playing with Numbers?

When FAMILY CIRCLE interviewed Col. Hackworth in late March, he said, "Our armed forces have had more than 600 fatalities in Iraq and 14,000 casualties." Hackworth's figures, which he received from a senior Pentagon source, were more than four times higher than the statistics then posted on the Web site of the Department of Defense. And Stars and Stripes reported that the Landstuhl Military Hospital in Germany had treated three times more casualties from Iraq than the Pentagon had posted. Says Col. Hackworth, "A lot of lying goes on about casualty rates. Both the Pentagon and the officers in the field lied about the number of our Vietnam casualties. If a wounded serviceman died in a helicopter while being evacuated for medical treatment, for example, he wasn't listed as a combat death." (As we went to press, reported fatalities in Iraq were at 765 and climbing, and casualties had increased significantly as well.)

Will They or Won't They?

Rumblings about a new draft began last  fall when the Defense Department's Web site posted an ad exhorting Americans over 18 to "Serve Your Community and the Nation, Become a Selective Service System Local Board Member."

If a military draft is activated, approximately 2,000 local and appeal boards will decide who gets deferments, postponements or exemptions from service. The Pentagon has now removed the notice from its Web site and denies any move to reinstate the draft, stating that the Selective Service System, which runs the draft boards, is merely launching a routine recruitment drive as 80 percent of those jobs are now vacant.

The SSS does admit, however, that it is planning for a possible draft of Arabic linguists, computer experts and medical personnel-doctors, nurses and technicians, ages 20 to 44. The last time physicians were drafted was during the Vietnam War. "We began working on scenarios for this after receiving a request for people with these skills from the Department of Defense," says SSS spokeswoman Alyce Burton.

According to the Selective Service Annual Performance Plan for 2004, before next March 31 draft boards must be potentially operational within two and a half months of a return to conscription. The plan also calls for testing the draft lottery, examination system and the system that classifies, places and monitors conscientious objectors.

No Child Left Unrecruited?

The United States spends $3 billion annually on military recruiting. What is not commonly known is that a great deal of that money is spent in our schools. The No Child Left Behind Act, signed by President Bush two years ago, includes a provision that if secondary schools fail to release the names, addresses and phone numbers of students to military recruiters, they will lose their Federal funding. Schools must allow military recruiters the same access to students received by civilian recruiters and colleges.

Jahnkow reports that high-school juniors and seniors (boys and girls) are

given the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery tests and that recruiters then show up at their homes. Recruiters admit their aggressive pursuit of students, even when parents object. 'The only thing that will get us to stop contacting the family is if they call their congressman," says Major Johannes Paraan, head army recruiter for Vermont and northeastern New York.

"People need to be alerted that these things are happening," says Jahnkow. 'The Pentagon is clearly influencing civilian life and also attempting to plant seeds that would make the public more accepting of the will of the military. What is happening in our schools is like a draft in the making for our children."

Should We Take This Seriously?

Charles Moskos, Ph.D., of Northwestern University, military adviser to U.S. presidents and secretaries of defense during his nearly 40-year career, thinks we should. "I was recently in Iraq, and there just aren't enough U.S. soldiers on the ground. Military experts estimate we need double the numbers of troops we currently have there-and we can't achieve that without a draft.”

What You Can Do

1. Call the Capitol in Washington, D.C., (202-224-3121) or go to the Web sites http://www.house.gov and http://www.senate.gov for your congressman's address or e-mail. Write to him/her about your concern.

2. You are legally entitled to block your children's names, address and phone number from being given to military recruiters by their schools. To do this, mail a letter to the school district headquarters (preferably by certified mail), with a copy to the school principal, directing that no information about your child be released to armed forces representatives.